Let's Fix This Country

Small Wonder Millennials Shun Religion

You have probably read that an increasing percent of the young generations — something on the order of 30% — have turned away from religion. It is a mixture of “no affiliation” and outright atheism, the latter being a forbidden word in an America where the Attorney General has been proselytizing from within his department, the secretary of state is a devout evangelist, and along with the vice president they gather together weekly for Bible studies and prayer.

We are in the plague year with millions at risk of illness and dying, so how does one castigate the young for their abandonment of religion when they learn that the First Baptist Dallas, a megachurch downtown in that city, filled its premises to a 500 person limit and sent 250 went to an overflow room? Senior pastor Robert Jeffress told his parishioners “a frightened world needs a fearless church”. Make that a church in which the frightened will become more frightened as they learn that congregating in such numbers has spread the virus. But there’s always prayer and we all know what that does to a virus.

The pastor said he complied with the county order not to have more than 500 people in one space. Apparently in Texas, coronavirus could make no headway in a room of 500 people, or so think the county administrators who thought up that ordinance.

The virus has shut down many and perhaps most of the nation’s houses of worship, but others are still “among the last places where public gatherings are still taking place”, reports The Wall Street Journal. “Do unto others” has apparently become “do them in”. Endanger not only their own attendees but all with whom they then go forth and make contact with. Judaism and Islam may be doing the same to their degrees but how does any religion expect to persuade the new generations to follow if their message is such immoral and menacing practices?

Mr President, Get Out of the Way!

On the Monday in the middle of March, it seemed that the truth of the virus threat had finally hit home with the president. His demeanor turned somber in a press briefing after weeks of trivializing and politicizing. He had apparentlyThe Latest, March 30:  At its end, this article asks whether the president will order a full national lockdown to stymie virus transmission. Instead, he chose the opposite. For days last week, saying ‘the cure is worse than the disease’, concerned only for restoring the economy he relies on for re-election, he planned to re-open the country by Easter contrary to all advice from medical professionals. Now, suddenly, finally made aware of how many would die if the virus were let loose and what that would do to re-election prospects, he reversed his position, extending national distancing to the end of April to hopefully break the scourge.
    

undergone a transition from seemingly the last person to realize that we are facing a pandemic, believing that “when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away”, to figuring that he’d better take center stage at almost daily press briefings as the one leading the fight to control the contagion and save America.

Trouble is, he was a fount of misinformation as that week progressed.

 After crucial weeks of inaction, when asked by a reporter how he would rate his
response to the pandemic, Trump said, “I’d rate it a 10”. With total lack of foresight of the chaos that would ensue, he had just the Friday before closed entry into the United States by other than American citizens and green card holders who had been in Europe and imposed extra screening at 13 international airports resulting in thousands of people standing in lines cheek by jowl for hours, potentially spreading the virus and with no way to track who had contact with whom.

 He again blamed the previous administration for leaving him an “obsolete system”. This time he did moderate that, saying, “or put it maybe in a different way, a system that wasn’t prepared to do anything like this”, but then boasted that the U.S. is now testing “tremendous amounts of people” when in fact testing was just beginning around the country and with no knowledge yet of how many people had been tested.

 There have been repeated promises of vast quantities of test kits by Trump and Pence, none of which proved true. Once again during the wek, the president said 1.4 million tests would be available by the following week and 5 million by mid-April but, “I doubt we’ll need anywhere near that”, still refusing to grasp the possible numbers in a nation verging on 330 million.

 Vice President Pence recites from the same fictional script, saying, always with obligatory sycophancy, that, “Thanks to bipartisan legislation and the accomplishment [of] the president…this tremendous increase in supply particularly with industrial masks is now available”, when all across the country healthcare producers are in a panic for lack of masks. Answering a reporter’s question about masks, Pence answered, “They’re available now”.

They are absolutely not available now. The medical community is advising people to use bandannas and scarves. A hospital in Indiana asked home volunteers to sew masks, sending them the stitching pattern in a PDF. We have for weeks seen people in all the stricken countries going about their lives wearing masks. The United States is so negligent about stockpiling goods as insurance against calamity that we have next to none.

 President Trump says the coronavirus caught him and the world off guard. “It’s something that nobody expected”. Not true. The New York Times reported that last year, the Health and Human Services Department performed simulations that showed how underprepared the United States was for a pandemic. Nothing was done in response to the warning. Furthermore, the Times reports that “outgoing Obama administration officials ran an extensive exercise on responding to a pandemic for incoming senior officials of the Trump administration”. A year later, Trump disbanded the government’s pandemic response team.

 In midweek, Mr. Trump fastened on an anti-malarial drug, hydroxychloroquine, and others such as anti-viral remdesivir not as a cure but as a palliative for those infected. Trump used the adjectives “rapid”, “quick”, “so fast” and said of chloroquine, “It’s shown very encouraging — very, very encouraging results — and we’re going to be able to make the drug available almost immediately and that’s where the FDA has been so great”. Minutes later, FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn had to caution that the drug has not been approved for use against the virus and is still being tested. The echo chamber at Fox News nevertheless boosted the president’s claim, with Sean Hannity irresponsibly crowing that the drugs are “new major breakthrough ways to treat the coronavirus actually using medicines that are FDA-approved and already in use”. Which they are not.

The most positive development is that those in the health community are speaking out — unlike White House staff and virtually every Republican in Congress — without regard to whether they will lose their posts. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top expert in infectious diseases, said the evidence for the drug is “anecdotal”. Hahn was emphatic:

“Let me make one thing clear. FDA’s responsibility to the American people is to make sure that products are safe and effective. We make sure that this sea of new treatments will get the right drug to the right patient at the right dosage at the right time”. Otherwise treatment “may do more harm than good”.

Trump’s “very, very encouraging results” about hydroxychloroquine can have only come from China where it has been in use, but trust in China is problematic. One medical interviewee said China has provided no data about effectiveness and a French study says that there’s a narrow window outside of which the drug can be toxic.

 President Trump resurrected the Defense Production Act “should we need to invoke it in a worst case scenario in the future… Hopefully there will be no need.” The act empowers the federal government to require American industry to manufacture needed products such as masks and ventilators. Reactivating the 70-year-old act from the Korean War era is an inspired idea, but Trump didn’t invoke its use. With masks, gloves, and sanitizer needed in the millions, and respirators in the tens to hundreds of thousands, how is there no need, and how to justify waiting for a worst case before taking action?

He said, “You know, so far, we haven’t had to” use it because companies are volunteering. Perhaps so, but no mention of which companies are producing what and in what quantities. And when Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer phoned him to implore the president to put the statute to use, Trump said he would and could then be heard only then ordering someone to “do it now”.

It looks likely that, having painted the Democrats as socialists who want to turn America into Venezuela, he is not using the Defense Production Act because then he would appear to be employing centrally-controlled socialism. He just turned that speculation into fact at his latest briefing saying,

“The concept of nationalizing our business is not a good concept…Call a person over in Venezuela, ask him, ‘How did nationalization of their businesses work out’. Not too well”.

Does he not understand that the act is used for temporary emergencies and is not permanent nationalization? Trump is risking the country for a personal political reason.

He went on to say,

“First of all, governors are supposed to be doing a lot of this work, and they are doing a lot of this work. The federal government is not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items and then shipping, you know we’re not a shipping clerk”.

It was an extraordinary abdication of responsibility. Although every governor we hear from — Washington, Maryland, New York — is so much more on top of the problem than Trump, the matter of supply is decidedly for the federal government to manage. Trump would have 50 states clamor to manufacturers with the weaker states left behind. And as supplies come on line, it is certainly for Trump’s administration to act as referee to decide who gets how much of what rather than leaving it to 50 states to fight among themselves to protect their healthcare workers and populace.

 The president’s contribution to how to conquer lost jobs has been to argue for slashing the payroll tax, no matter how that would aggravate Social Security and Medicare which already face unsustainable futures. More immediately, what sense does it make when millions now have no payroll and are signing up for unemployment benefits. A payroll tax cut would benefit those still with jobs and paychecks while doing nothing for those who’ve been let go. One has to think that all Mr. Trump has in mind is the benefit to him — and at cost to the nation — when in the coming election he could boast of yet another tax cut.

As virtual press secretary before the cameras daily, instead of straight answers that the nation can trust, we get elliptical deviation from Mr. Trump, such as his answer to NBC’s Kristen Welker who asked, “So why was the United States not prepared with more testing?” First came the lie, then the reversion to his greatest hits, much like his constantly bringing up his electoral college score at rallies. In this case it’s the one laudatory move he made now months ago, followed by six weeks of near zero action:

“We were very prepared. The only thing we weren’t prepared for was the media. The media has not treated it fairly. I’ll tell you how prepared it was. I called for a ban from people coming in from China long before anybody, in fact, it was your network, I believe they called me a racist because I did that. It was many of the people in the room they called me racist and other words because I did that because I went so early. So when you say we weren’t prepared, had I let these tens of thousands of people come in from China a day, we would have had something right now that would’ve been, you wouldn’t have even recognized it compared to where we are.”

And where is that? We wish we knew.

At a press briefing the president was asked, “What do you say to Americans who are watching right now who are scared?” Trump’s answer,

“I’d say that you’re a terrible reporter. That’s what I’d say. That was a very nasty question and I think it’s a very bad signal that you’re putting out to the American people”.

It was a display of conduct which put out a very bad signal about this president.

Perhaps the most telling moment came when NPR’s Yamiche Alcindor asked, “When will every American who needs a test, get a test?” The president’s answer was off the mark:

“You’re hearing very positive things about testing and just so you understand, we don’t want every American to go out and get a test, 350 million [sic] people. We don’t want that. We want people that are, that have a problem.”

To get her question answered, Alcindor came back with, “There are Americans, though, that say that they have symptoms and they can’t get tested. Why do you say…” Trump cut her off with, “I’m not, I’m not hearing it”, swinging his arms out as if to sweep away what she said. It was an example of what we have often seen with this man, an adoption of his own reality and refusal to hear the contradiction of actual reality.

If he does not fully absorb what is happening, will the president fail to take the measure adopted by other countries and San Francisco in this country, the immediate and full shutdown for a couple of weeks to freeze the spread of Covid19 to the maximum extent? With virtually everything closed already, it makes no sense not to take full advantage with the next step of full social distancing with all of us self-quarantined in our homes. We can’t count on all 50 states to do this on their own. It must come from the federal government and there’s no one else who can give that emergency order. The president develops idées fixes that form his conception of reality and we have seen them return again and again. Rather than decisive action should we be fearful that once again we may hear Trump muse that, “One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear”.

New York Shuts Down

Park Avenue New York, as few have seen it.    (photo by Kent McKamy)

How the U.S. Squandered Weeks Failing to Confront the Virus

With the coronavirus raging in China, the entire city of Wuhan cordoned off one week before, President Trump on January 31 blocked entry of Chinese nationals into this country and had Americans returning from China quarantined, a single act that may well have saved the spread of this highly communicable disease to thousands.

Trump being Trump, he congratulated himself, claiming without evidence that there was widespread opposition to the idea and that it was done “against the advice of a lot of great professionals” in his administration. “Everybody said, ‘It’s too early, it’s too soon,’ and good people, brilliant people, said, ‘Don’t do it. And I thought it was a wise thing to do.”

After that, nothing

Not until six weeks later, in mid-March, did Trump realize that the health of the nation should take priority. Flanked by Vice President Pence and a number of corporate CEOs from the health industry, he declared in the Rose Garden a national emergency and granted the head of the Health and Human Services (HHS), Alex Azar, powers to suspend a list of regulations that have hindered response to the coronavirus.

Two days earlier, the president had given a speech to the nation from the Oval Office that needed several corrections just minutes after delivery. He had said, giving two days notice, that all people and all goods from Europe were to be banned from entry into this country; it would have stranded Americans abroad and shut down trade, a specter that caused markets overseas to crash.

Until this point Mr. Trump had been preoccupied with the gyrations of the stock market and the threat to the booming economy so important to his re-election (see companion story). The result of inattention is that testing for the virus is barely underway. Unlike other nations around the globe that are testing thousands — 10,000 a day in South Korea — the United States has no idea how many cases there are in the nation.

The Buck Doesn’t Stop Here Anymore

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, said before Congress earlier this week:

“The system does not, is not really geared to what we need right now, what you are asking for. That is a failing. It is a failing. Let’s admit it. The idea of anybody getting [tested] easily the way people in other countries are doing it, we’re not set up for that. Do I think we should be? Yes. But we’re not.”

At the Rose Garden gathering, NBC News’ Kristen Welker quoted Dr. Fauci calling government performance a “failing” and asked the president, “Do you take responsibility
for that?” His answer:

“No, I don’t take responsibility at all because we were given a set of circumstances and we were given rules, regulations and specifications from a different time”.

More on those supposed rules later, but this is a president who has had three years to change whatever regulations were an impediment in a health emergency, and who has stuck down scores of other regulations in behalf of corporate America.

In all the weeks between the first cases on our shores in late January and the middle of March, how did it go so wrong?

shrink the government

For years now there have been mounting concerns that disease pandemic would someday be inevitable. Population expansion puts humans in closer contact with other species as we encroach on animal habitat; profligate feeding of antibiotics to livestock is teaching microbes to outmaneuver drugs; the rapid mutation of microbes is outrunning drug development. What preventive action was the nation taking?

Following the extraordinary success preventing Ebola in this country, the Obama White House set up in 2014 the global health security office as part of the National Security Council. Its job, in the words of Beth Cameron, who ran it, was “to do everything possible within the vast powers and resources of the U.S. government to prepare for the next disease outbreak and prevent it from becoming an epidemic or pandemic”.

Trump came to government under the influence of Steve Bannon, who brashly advocated the deconstruction of the administrative state. That resonated with the new president, who had expressed confidence he could run both the country and the Trump Organization at the same time; he thought government bloated and ordered that its departments be stripped — a 30% reduction of the State Department, for example.
In keeping with Trump dismantling everything else Obama had accomplished, certainly the pandemic prevention unit had to go, so then-National Security Adviser John Bolton got rid of it.


Alcindor asks Trump a “nasty” question.

NPR’s Yamiche Alcindor asked the president at the Rose Garden event why he had closed that office adding, “the White House lost valuable time because that office was disbanded…What responsibility do you take to that?” Trump answered:

Well, I just think it’s a nasty question because what we’ve done and Tony has said numerous times we’ve saved thousands of lives because of the quick closing and when you say me, I didn’t do it. We have a group of people…I could perhaps ask Tony about that because I don’t know anything about it”.

He turned to ask Tony, Dr. Fauci of the National Institute of Health located in Bethesda, Maryland, about the disbanding of a team that worked at his own White House.

That team, continually in place, as Obama had directed, would have had plans to execute Day #1, with a communications network in place connecting healthcare professionals, knowledge of hospital capacities, and — if supported by a farsighted president — congressionally authorized expenditures for stockpiles of needed supplies. Instead, we have pharmacies long since sold out of even rudimentary masks that we see worn universally in other countries, and looming shortages of N95-grade mask, latex gloves, and gowns needed by medical personnel, and the vital ventilators that assist breathing for the seriously ill.

the cdc falters

Patient samples for testing were originally to be sent to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, an awkward arrangement that cost two-to-three days of turnaround. Better would be testing kits to enable state labs to do their own testing. Such kits had been developed in China and other countries. The one developed at a lab in Germany was endorsed by the World Health Organization. Perhaps betraying a not-invented-here attitude at the CDC, an outfit otherwise heralded as a gold standard the world over, the CDC declined to use the German kit and created its own, only to learn that flaws were discovered in the original shipments. Each kit had the capacity to test 700 to 800 specimens from patients, the agency said, but one of its three ingredients was causing “inconclusive” readings.

Even the CDC had to get “emergency use authorization” from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to devise and distribute its kit, a policy meant to control quality, but which prevented hospitals and labs from developing kits in house, short of making their own complicated applications to the FDA in the midst of a public health emergency. Moreover, strict rules restricted who could qualify for testing. When the CDC faltered, the rules were not relaxed. The CDC even reminded hospitals that they should not develop their own tests without an “emergency use authorization” from the FDA. Scott Gottlieb, head of the FDA until a year ago, tweeted at the beginning of February:

“Since CDC and FDA haven’t authorized public health or hospitals to run the tests, right now #CDC is the only place that can. So, screening has to be rationed”

A modified CDC kit with only two of its ingredients was cleared for use by the FDA near the end of February. Coronavirus in the U.S. could finally be proven.

Not until February 29th did the FDA relax its rules to allow hospitals and labs to develop their own tests. Companies can seek FDA authorization after the fact, submitting details of their test within 15 days mof first use.

A week into March, the nation was playing catch-up. Six weeks lost. The virus got a head start, with no knowledge of how far Covid-19 (the preferred name of the specific pathogen because “corona” is a virus family) has already spread for lack of tests to find out. Scott Becker, head of the Association of Public Health Laboratories, knows best. He said to The New York Times:

“We’ve seen major progress with essentially the lights coming on across the country. We’re absolutely a few weeks behind where we should be. There is no way you can sugarcoat that.”

Integrated DNA Technologies, a commercial test manufacturer working with CDC, has now shipped tests enough to administer to 700,000 people. The major labs — Quest Diagnostics and LabCorp — are ready to ship their versions. Four million more are to be shipped the week this is written, says the administration. “We’re going to need millions and millions and millions of tests,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in a CNN Town Hall. In contrast, Trump was misleading the public promising,

“Anybody right now and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. They have the tests and the tests are beautiful.”

Yes, he said “beautiful”. Pence said it would be a “matter of weeks” before Americans could get easy access. Labs report the ability to handle on average about 200 tests a day.

ship to shore radiating

The administration was justly faulted for other shortcomings. There was the inexplicable judgment of the State Department overriding the CDC’s advice when it loaded 328 passengers from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, quarantined in Japan, onto a flight along with other unexposed passengers. After a State Department pledge that no one with the virus would be allowed on board the plane, 14 tested positive.

The blunder was compounded when a whistleblower from Health and Human Services (HHS) reported that federal health workers had been “improperly deployed” to two military bases in California to greet and process without protective gear Americans who had been evacuated from Covid-19 hot zones. After exposure the health workers themselves were not quarantined to counteract the error. Staff members worried about exposure called it a “cover-up” that agency higher-ups downplayed the incident.

pound foolish

The administration’s disregard for preparedness to meet black swan events shows up in the president’s annual budgets. He has repeatedly tried to decrease funding of the CDC, essential for its infectious disease expertise, witness the defeat of the Ebola epidemic in 2014. In 2018, the CDC was forced to slash by 80% its program to prevent global disease outbreak for lack of funding. It had to reduce its focus to 10 countries and scale back the rest, including China.

What can be said about a proposed budget for fiscal 2021 (beginning October 1) that, in the face of a worldwide pandemic, includes a nearly 16% cut in funding for the CDC and a 10% cut of Health and Human Services, the umbrella department of which the CDC and the National Institutes of Health are subdivisions?

the new team

Rather than choosing a “czar” to oversee the health threat, as had Obama for Ebola, the president, thinking that some outside health expert might not be loyal — his primary test in a purge underway after impeachment — tapped Vice President Pence to run the defense against a pandemic. “He’s got a certain talent for this”, Trump said without irony at the White House briefing.

Pence brings complications to this assignment. As late as 2000, he argued that smoking doesn’t kill. In 2015 when governor of Indiana, he was faulted for his slow response when the state was struck with its worst HIV outbreak. In a federal government-funded inquiry, Yale University researchers found the epidemic could have been cut by 74% if Pence and state officials had acted faster. As cases spiked, Pence reportedly turned to prayer as the answer.

As soon as he took charge Pence ordered that all communication about the virus — no matter that they be from experts such as Fauci and Messionier — must first be cleared by his office. Fauci said he “was not muzzled”, but he did say that he had to get permission for a half-dozen pre-scheduled television appearances.

Then the vice president quickly announced that Deborah Birx, leader of U.S. efforts to fight HIV/AIDS around the world, would be the “White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator”. It was a well-regarded choice and first step.

the inevitable attack on obama

President Trump had been highly critical of President Obama for his handling of the Ebola threat in 2014. Think of how that threat was completely thwarted before it ever got off the ground and about Trump appointing Pence as you read his tweet from back then:

“Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE! Obama should apologize to the American people and resign”

In what we have called the Obama psychodrama, in which Trump is in constant competition with the former president, he is now at it again, saying:

“The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion. This was a very big move. It was something that we had to do and we did it very quickly. And now we have tremendous flexibility. Many, many more sites. Many, many more people. And you couldn’t have had that under the Obama rule, and we ended that rule very quickly.”

There was no “Obama rule”, only guidance, and that was withdrawn when Congress decided to draft legislation, which also never happened. This had to do with test development and FDA approval that was covered here earlier. As is his habit, Trump takes credit for success but shifts blame for failure elsewhere. He was briefed on the coming health threat by HHS Secretary Azar in late January, who reported that he had difficulty getting Trump to focus his attention (he switched the subject to e-cigarettes).

The administration could have taken action weeks ago to allow hospitals and laboratories to develop their own tests and then submit them to the FDA for approval after-the-fact — within 15 days of first use, which is now the arrangement. Whereas South Korea has tested tens of thousands, the U.S. has just begun. We therefore have no idea how far the virus has spread, there are no announced test centers, people are walking into emergency rooms exposing those in waiting rooms — and worse — medical staffs, who then must be taken offline and quarantined for weeks.

With Nation Ill-Prepared for Virus, the President Spreads Confusion

He was half the world away in India when the coronavirus made landfall in the U.S. and the stock market tanked. Even from afar he began a steady commentary — in meetings , by tweets, by call-ins to television — to paint a rosier picture of the oncoming pandemic, using his access to the media to drown out the more sobering forebodings of the nation’s health professionals.

“Well, I don’t think it’s inevitable. It probably will, it possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens, we’re totally prepared.”

The U.S. neither was nor is totally prepared. He was hoping to subsume the counseling of Nancy Meissonier of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In a briefing, she being the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Meissonier had warned that the virus’s spread to the United States was no longer a question of “if” but a question of “exactly when this will happen. We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”

The president hoped to wish away the looming problem with his improbable musings. On three different occasions in previous weeks he had put his faith in the virus behaving like annual flu:

 “There’s a theory that in April, when it gets warm, historically that has been able to kill the virus.”…

 “The virus. They’re working hard. Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away. That’s true”…

 “The virus that we’re talking about having to do [sic], you know a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat, as the heat comes in. Typically that will go away in April”.

The World Health Organization advised against false hopes that the virus will fade during the warmer season. Too little is known about this virus; behavior as seasonal flu cannot be assumed.

Driving Mr. Trump’s longing that the virus would simply go away is that he counts on the robust economy to win for him re-election and is “furious about the stock market’s slide”, one of his aides anonymously told the media. He has boasted continuously about the market’s rise being the result of his tax cuts and his browbeating the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. At his news conference on return from India we heard a president too impatient to wait for April; he seemed to be trying to juice stock prices by declaring the global pandemic had already been prevented in the U.S.:

“[W]hen you have 15 people — and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero — that’s a pretty good job we’ve done”.

Trump’s circle seemed instructed to care more about stock prices than the contagion. Cheerleading that investors should bid up the market again, Trump’s Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, said, “Stocks look pretty cheap to me”; he told The Washington Post that investors should take advantage of one-day slumps and “buy the dips”. Contradicting the worry of health officials, Kudlow’s optimistic assessment on CNBC sounded as if the feared “community spread” of the virus had already come and gone:

“We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but pretty close to airtight. The business side and the economic side, I don’t think it’s going to be an economic tragedy at all…The numbers are saying the U.S. [is] holding up nicely.”

If you don’t believe him, you can place your trust with counselor to the president, Kellyanne Conway, who says “It is being contained”. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross saw benefits to a contagion. Last month he told Fox Business,

“I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] U.S., probably some to Mexico as well.”

Government officials are wary of contradicting this president. At a White House briefing on the coronavirus outbreak, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar guardedly suggested more was yet to come:

“[W]hat every one of our experts and leaders have been saying for more than a month now remains true: The degree of risk has the potential to change quickly, and we can expect to see more cases in the United States”.

feel good lies?

Perhaps to calm fears, not least his own for what a pandemic could do to the economy and re-election prospects, the president continued to deeply mislead the public. He has repeatedly said, “we’re very close to a vaccine” and in that news conference said:

“We are rapidly developing a vaccine…The vaccine is coming along well, and in speaking to the doctors, we think this is something that we can develop very rapidly.”

The U.S. may have a vaccine “relatively soon”, he said at a rally in North Carolina the night before Super Tuesday. “Something that makes you feel better …sooner”, except a vaccine is not a cure. It prevents disease. And it is nowhere near available. A candidate vaccine for Covid-19, the preferred name for the particular virus as one of a family of viruses named “corona”, is only approaching first-step safety tests. Federal experts say anything for widespread use looks to be more than a year away. “We can’t rely on a vaccine over the next several months,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease chief at the National Institutes of Health and probably the world.

By the way, Trump doesn’t believe his rallies — gatherings of thousands according to his numbers — pose a threat of spreading illness. “We’ll hold tremendous rallies”.

Similarly, Trump declared that “Anybody who wants a test” for the virus “can get a test”, which was entirely false because so few test kits had come on stream. He attests that the accuracy of the coronavirus test is “perfect — like the letter was perfect.” He often mocks Joe Biden for slips but here he was confusing letter with phone call — the call to Ukraine’s president that he unceasingly described as perfect.

His assurance that anyone can get a test makes for concern that demand for testing “has the potential to overwhelm the public health system, and the country”, said Scott Becker, head of the public health lab association.

At a time when preparedness should be the constant theme with the public, Mr. Trump was in full denial about coronavirus cases. Signing at the White House an $8.3 billion funding bill to combat the scourge he instructed the public, “Be calm. It will go away.”

“We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up”. With very few tested and little known of how widely disease will spread, Trump bathed in self-congratulation as if the threat is gone: “Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low”. He tweeted:

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we, you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows. The fact is, the greatest experts, I’ve spoken to them all, nobody really knows.”

Placed in charge of managing the virus response, Vice President Pence immediately ordered that no one speak to the media or the public without prior clearance from his office. But that didn’t stop the president. Weeks into the first cases reported in the U.S., the president is still spreading his own theories about Covid-19. When he called into Fox News in the first week of March, Sean Hannity informed him that with over 100,000 cases reported and some 3,400 deaths, the mortality rate for Covid-19 was running at 3.4%. Mr. Trump disagreed. He decides according to instinct and his “gut” rather than knowledge or information, and this time it was a “hunch”:

“Well, I think that 3.4% is really a false number. This is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this [sic] because a lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor…So we have hundreds of thousands of people who get better, by, you know, sitting around, even going to work, some of them going to work, but they get better…But they don’t know about the easy cases because the easy cases don’t go to the hospital. They don’t report to doctors or the hospital in many cases, so I think that that number is very high. Personally I would say the number is way under 1%.”

Here was the president suggesting people can go to work, infecting others with this contagion, so as to prop up his economy. He then said his comments were misconstrued and blamed the Democrats and the media. “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work,” he tweeted.

SLINGS AND ARROWS

President Trump and Democrats traded blame. At a rally he held the night before Saturday’s Democratic primary in North Charlestown, South Carolina, the president called Democratic criticism of the administration’s handling of the disease outbreak “a hoax”, his all-purpose word that no longer comports to its dictionary meaning. Right wing media joined in.

Democrats are “sadly politicizing and weaponizing an infectious disease as their next effort to bludgeon President Trump”, said Hannity. “The reason you’re seeing so much attention to [coronavirus] today is that they think this is going to be the thing that brings down the president”, newly ousted Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said. “That’s what this is all about it.”

CDC’s Messonnier, a professional in the field of infectious diseases, drew suspicion of a “deep state” conspiracy for her being sister of Rod Rosenstein, the former deputy attorney general who oversaw special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.

“How sick that these people seem almost happiest when Americans are hurting”, accused Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, bashing Democrats for “relishing in this moment”. That was slander with no basis, of course; no one hopes for an epidemic. Her “sick” adjective could better be applied to he who has brought the country together all these years and so richly deserved the Medal of Freedom recently bestowed on him by Trump, namely Rush Limbaugh, who said the media “would love for the coronavirus to be this deadly strain that wipes everybody out so they could blame Trump for it”. Eldest son Donald Trump Jr. was equally blinkered about just who is sick for saying much the same: “For them to try to take a pandemic and seemingly hope that it comes here and kills millions of people so that they can end Donald Trump’s streak of winning is a new level of sickness,” he told Fox News.

numbers not lives

About a contagion that only recently arrived in this country, he boasted,

“We have very low numbers compared to major countries throughout the world. Our numbers are lower than just about anybody”.

And he wants to keep those numbers low. He talked on the phone with California Gov. Gavin Newsom about the 3,500 people quarantined on a cruise ship off the California coast. Trump wanted the passengers to remain on the ship so they would not add to the total sick count in the United States. “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of the people on that ship”, he said. It was an outrage better kept quiet; Pence later said the ship would be brought to berth in Oakland.

A CBS/YouGov poll found that, among Trump supporters, 11% say they trust the media but 91% say that they rely on what Trump says as the truth. But by the time of his visit to the CDC in Atlanta, after all the misinformation that had gone before, perhaps some of them had second thoughts, when what he said turned comical:

“I think we

are doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down. We’ve really been very vigilant…I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this. Maybe I have a natural ability’. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”

With outbreaks recorded in 90 countries around the world, the president, by not staying with somber scientific assessments and instead concocting wishful delusions that the virus will simply go away, has undercut his own believability going forward. By continuing to mislead he runs the risk of losing the trust of even ardent followers who want the truth for the sake of their families, friends, and co-workers. As Trump often says, “We’ll see what happens”, but he should take note of a line in the HBO series on Chernobyl, “Every lie incurs a debt to the truth and eventually that debt is paid”.

Ill-Prepared for Virus, Administration Spreads Confusion

Half the world away in India as the coronavirus made landfall in the U.S. and the stock market tanked, President Trump experienced a rough week. While various administration figures issued contradictory statements, Trump himself made his own contribution at midweek, saying:

“Well, I don’t think it’s inevitable. It probably will, it possibly will. It could be at a very small level or it could be at a larger level. Whatever happens, we’re totally prepared.”

He was hoping to subsume the counseling of Nancy Messonnier, the director of the CDC’s (Center for Disease Control) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, who in a briefing the day before warned that the virus’s spread to the United States was no longer a question of “if” but…

“exactly when this will happen. We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”

The president hoped to wish away the looming problem with improbable musings. On three different occasions in previous weeks he had put his faith in the virus behaving like annual flu:

 “There’s a theory that in April, when it gets warm, historically that has been able to kill the virus.”…
 “The virus. They’re working hard. Looks like by April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away.”…”
 The virus that we’re talking about having to do [sic], you know a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat, as the heat comes in. Typically that will go away in April.”

Trump counts on the economy to win for him re-election and is reportedly “furious about the stock market’s slide”. He had said, “I know a lot about the stock market” and on Monday of the fateful week tweeted, “Stock Market starting to look very good to me”, only to see it nosedive 1,032 points that day. In that single week the Dow dropped 12% and has been gyrating since.

Trump’s circle seemed to care more about stock prices than the contagion. His Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, told The Washington Post late that Monday that investors should consider “buying these dips” in the stock market, take advantage of one-day slumps and “buy low”. Contradicting the worry of health officials, Kudlow’s optimistic assessment on CNBC sounded as if the feared “community spreading” had already come and gone:

“We have contained this. I won’t say airtight, but pretty close to airtight. The business side and the economic side, I don’t think it’s going to be an economic tragedy at all…The numbers are saying the U.S. [is] holding up nicely.”

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross had a similar focus. Last month he told Fox Business, “I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] U.S., probably some to Mexico as well.”

At his news conference at midweek we heard a president too impatient to wait for April; he seemed to be trying to juice stock prices by declaring the global pandemic had been prevented in the U.S.:

“[W]hen you have 15 people — and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero — that’s a pretty good job we’ve done”.

Early on that Wednesday, at the White House briefing on the coronavirus outbreak, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Alex Azar said the opposite:

[W]hat every one of our experts and leaders have been saying for more than a month now remains true: The degree of risk has the potential to change quickly, and we can expect to see more cases in the United States”.

Perhaps to calm fears, not least his own because he believes the lusty economy holds the key to his re-election, the president deeply misled the public. He has repeatedly said, “we’re very close to a vaccine” and in that news conference said:

“We are rapidly developing a vaccine…The vaccine is coming along well, and in speaking to the doctors, we think this is something that we can develop very rapidly.”

In fact, a candidate vaccine for Covid-19, the preferred name for the particular virus as one of a family of viruses named “corona”, is only approaching first-step safety tests. Federal experts say anything for widespread use looks to be more than a year away. “We can’t rely on a vaccine over the next several months,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease chief at the National Institutes of Health and probably the world.

Or maybe Trump didn’t think a vaccine was needed, judging from his next thought. He also said on Wednesday about Covid-19 cases: “We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up”.

At a time when preparedness should by the constant theme with the public, Mr. Trump was in full denial, tweeting:

“It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we, you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We’ll see what happens. Nobody really knows. The fact is, the greatest experts, I’ve spoken to them all, nobody really knows.”

Pence, Newly-minted Epidemiologist

Rather than choosing a “czar” to oversee the health threat, as had Obama for Ebola, the president, thinking that some outside health expert might not be loyal — his primary test in a purge underway after impeachment — tapped Vice President Pence to run the defense against a pandemic. “He’s got a certain talent for this”, Trump said at the White House briefing.

He brings complications to this assignment. As late as 2000, he argued that smoking doesn’t kill. In 2015 when governor of Indiana, he was faulted for his slow response when the state was struck with its worst HIV outbreak. In a federal government-funded inquiry, Yale University researchers found the epidemic could have been cut by 74% if Pence and state officials had acted faster. Instead they cut funding for the last HIV testing provider in the problem area. “It was a total collapse of public health leadership and a dereliction of duty in Indiana,” said the author of the Yale study. “They could have avoided this epidemic if science took the lead instead of ideology.” As cases spiked, Pence reportedly turned to prayer as the answer.

As soon as he took charge Pence ordered that all communication about the virus — no matter that they be from experts such as Fauci and Messionier — must first be cleared by his office.

That didn’t stop President Trump. Weeks into the first cases reported in the U.S. the president is still spreading his own theories about Covid-19. When he called into Fox News in the first week of March, Sean Hannity informed him that the mortality rate for Covid-19 was thought to be 3.4%. Trump disagreed:

“Well, I think that 3.4% is really a false number. This is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this [sic] because a lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly. They don’t even see a doctor. They don’t even call a doctor…So we have hundreds of thousands of people who get better, by, you know, sitting around, even going to work, some of them going to work, but they get better…But they don’t know about the easy cases because the easy cases don’t go to the hospital. They don’t report to doctors or the hospital in many cases, so I think that that number is very high. Personally I would say the number is way under 1%.”~

the right stuff

The vice president quickly announced that Deborah Birx, leader of U.S. efforts to fight HIV/AIDS around the world, would be the “White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator”. It was a well-regarded choice and first step in what could be a long road as cases began to be reported in states around the country.

slings and arrows

President Trump and Democrats traded blame. At a rally he held the night before Saturday’s Democratic primary in North Charlestown, South Carolina, the president called Democratic criticism of the administration’s handling of the disease outbreak “a hoax”, his all-purpose word that no longer comports to its dictionary meaning. Right wing media joined in. “How sick that these people seem almost happiest when Americans are hurting”, accused Fox News’ Laura Ingraham, bashing Democrats for “relishing in this moment”. Democrats are “sadly politicizing and weaponizing an infectious disease as their next effort to bludgeon President Trump”, said Fox’s Sean Hannity. For them, CDC’s Messonnier, a professional in the field of infectious diseases, drew suspicion of a “deep state” conspiracy for her being sister of Rod Rosenstein, the former deputy attorney general who oversaw special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.

Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney shamed the media at week’s end, saying that the administration took “extraordinary steps four or five weeks ago” to prevent the spread of the virus by declaring a rare public health emergency to bar entry by most foreign citizens who had recently visited China.

” Why didn’t you hear about it? What was still going on four or five weeks ago? Impeachment. That’s all the press wanted to talk about.”

Just as Democrats sought to bring down the president by its intensive coverage of impeachment, Mulvaney said, so are they now trying the same with virus coverage.

^
The “weaponzing” referred to criticism from Democrats and the media for the administration’s lack of preparedness for a pandemic. And poor choices that had been made. There was the inexplicable judgment of the State Department which had overridden the CDC’s advice, loading 328 passengers from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, quarantined in Japan, onto a flight along with other unexposed passengers. After a State Department pledge that no one with the virus would be allowed on board the plane, 14 tested positive.

The blunder was compounded when a whistleblower from HHS reported that federal health workers had been “improperly deployed” to two military bases in California to process Americans who had been evacuated from Covid-19 hot zones without protective gear, and were then not themselves quarantined to counteract the error. Staff members worried about exposure said that agency higher-ups downplayed the incident calling it a “cover-up”.

Trump came to government under the influence of Steve Bannon, who brashly intended the deconstruction of the administrative state. That resonated with the new president, who had expressed confidence he could run both the country and the Trump Organization at the same time; he thought government bloated and ordered that its departments be stripped — a 30% reduction of the State Department, for example.

Part of that policy undercut preparedness against widespread disease contagion. The White House had an official in place who oversaw a team responsible for the U.S. response to the when-not-if inevitability of a pandemic, now that microbes are outrunning the effectiveness of drugs and drug development. But that team was set up by Barack Obama, so Donald Trump of course had then-National Security Adviser John Bolton get rid of the unit, in keeping with the president dismantling everything else Obama had accomplished.

Trump sees no problem with starting anew in the midst of what could quickly become a crisis. “We can get money and we can increase staff. We know all the people,” he said. “We can build up very very quickly.” He didn’t get money; it was given to him. The administration had asked for $2.5 billion, far short of what a nation of almost 330 million might need. Congress voted over $8 billion.

Trump’s budget’s have repeatedly tried to decrease funding of the CDC, an organization that is respected as the gold standard worldwide for its infectious disease expertise, witness the defeat of the Ebola epidemic in 2014. In 2018, the CDC was forced to slash by 80% its program to prevent global disease outbreak for lack of funding. It had to reduce its focus to 10 countries and scale back the rest, including China.

Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal 2021 (beginning October 1) includes a nearly 16% cut in funding for the CDC and a 10% cut of Health and Human Services, the umbrella department of which the CDC and the National Institutes of Health are subdivisions.

First steps

Entirely new to this and with no advisers on hand, Trump asked for $2.5 billion to fight the virus — far too little — and half of this he would take from HHS’s budget. Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats proposed $8.5 billion, more in keeping with past authorizations such as $6.1 billion for avian flu that Congress approved in two tranches in late 2005 and 2006, or the nearly $7.7 billion appropriated in 2009 to respond to the H1N1 virus outbreak.

With outbreaks recorded in 60 countries around the world, the president, by not staying with somber scientific assessments and instead concocting wishful illusions that the virus would simply go away, has undercut his own believability going forward. By continuing to mislead he runs the risk of losing the trust of even ardent followers who want the truth for the sake of their families. As Trump often says, “We’ll see what happens”, but he should take note of a line in the HBO series on Chernobyl, “Every lie incurs a debt to the truth and eventually that debt is paid”.

The Deficit Soars, the Debt Balloons, So Let’s Cut Taxes Again

We’ve kept this outdated article on the page as a reminder of what life was just recently but now seems quaint considering how the deficit is not about to balloon but rather to explode.

In his State of the Union address, the president celebrated the economy with exuberance:

“In just over two years since the election, we have launched an unprecedented economic boom — a boom that has rarely been seen before. There’s been nothing like it… The U.S. economy is growing almost twice as fast today as when I took office. And we are considered, far and away, the hottest economy anywhere in the world. Not even close.”

Hyperbole and “twice as fast” falsehood aside, the economy is indeed flourishing. Unemployment is near an historic low with millions of jobs created, wages of the

lower-paid have finally been rising, inflation remains tamed. Mr. Trump is in the habit of taking all credit but the boom arrived at the culmination of a long and continuous upward trajectory from the deepest dive we’ve seen in our lifetimes dubbed the Great Recession. For his part, he did give the economy an added boost by signing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 that slashed corporate taxes from 35% to 21% and left the public with a bit more money after withholding’s bite of their paychecks.

But he did so at a great cost that went unmentioned in his speech. Days earlier the Treasury Department announced that the deficit for calendar year 2019 had topped $1 trillion for the first time since the 2008 economic collapse, a plunge that brought unemployment of 9.9% at the outset, followed by an economy of part-time “gigs” and minimum wage paychecks that crippled government revenues. Government revenue in 2009 was only $2.1 trillion compared to $3.44 trillion last year.

Compared to those years, how could a $1 trillion deficit happen at a time of 3.6% unemployment, rising wages, a soaring stock market? A trillion-dollar-plus deficit will be the case this year as well, says the Congressional Budget Office, and will continue for several years. Worse, the CBO forecasts that if nothing is changed, in less than 10 years the U.S. will begin running deficits closer to $2 trillion. Nt to worry, says this president:

“I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me. I’ve made a fortune by using debt and if things don’t work out I renegotiate the debt. I mean, that’s a smart thing, not a stupid thing.”

How do you renegotiate debt with the United States government?

The increased deficit owes to the 2017 tax cuts, slated to cost $1.5 trillion in lost revenue over 10 years, and a whopping $1.4 trillion bipartisan, months-late spending bill rushed to completion to avoid a government shutdown in December. Some would add the rising costs of Social Security and Medicare, but these costs are demographic, known from far off, and built into the original CBO estimate of the 2020 deficit made in 2017 before the tax cuts. Seen in the table, that number was a deficit of $775 against today’s post-tax cut estimate of $1.015 trillion:


Laffer Lore

But weren’t the tax cuts supposed to pay for themselves? The architects of the Trump administration tax plan said they would. That has been the Republican incantation ever since economist Arthur Laffer sold the idea to Ronald Reagan. Tax cuts would generate enough growth that taxes on higher wages paid to more jobs would exceed the forgone revenue of the tax cuts.

Even though it has never proved true, it is a useful fantasy for selling costly tax cuts to a gullible public. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been the standard bearer for this administration. Arguing for the tax cuts in 2017 he had said, “The plan will pay for itself with growth.” As recently as a year ago he claimed that if growth could be sustained at 3% a year, the entire “revenue hole would be filled”. And not just filled. “This plan will cut down the deficits by a trillion dollars”, he had earlier said. He seemed to be channeling Donald Trump who had on several occasions boasted of balancing the budget. “We can balance the budget very quickly …I think over a five-year period”, Trump said to Sean Hannity of Fox News in January, 2016, and that April he went on to tell The Washington Post that he would get rid of the national debt “over a period of eight years”. “I’ll stick with my projections that the tax deal will pay for itself,” Mnuchin just said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

For proof, just look at federal revenue. It has risen from year to year not just despite the tax cuts but because of the tax cuts, say believers on the Right. For example, revenues for 2019 were $3.44 trillion versus $3.33 trillion for 2018. Those on the Left and the economist fraternity say that the measure should be taken against revenues that were expected had there been no tax cut. In 2017, the last year before the tax bill, the CBO estimated that revenues for 2019 would be $3.69 trillion. But then the tax cuts were enacted and the actual government take proved to be the $3.44 trillion mentioned — a shortfall of $250 billion. So, no, the cuts aren’t paying for themselves. But the myth won’t die.

We’re not China

Another failing of a principle objective for Mr. Trump was growing the economy. The results have disappointed him. In the fall of 2017, contemplating the effect of the tax cut bill about to go through Congress, he thought 3% growth per year would be the minimum, but “I don’t see why we don’t go to 4%, 5%, even 6%” growth. He did see an average of about 3% in a burst for four quarters bracketing 2017-18 and a 3.1% first quarter last year, but 2019 ended at 2.3% for the whole year after averaging 2.1% for the last three months of 2019.

That’s the 2% range economists and the CBO had forecast for years to come. The economy is already operating at a high level and demographics are against heady growth with the population growing more slowly and an increasing percentage shuffling into the retirement years. For this mammoth economy to grow at 2% every year compounded is quite stunning. Shouldn’t the emphasis shift to how well the average citizen is doing?

Trump always needs to assign blame, so he has pointed to Boeing’s 737 Max problems and severe storms for holding back the economy, as if he was owed trouble-free clear. He makes no mention of the depressing effect of his tariff wars.

But mostly he blames the Federal Reserve. “Had we not done the big raise on interest, I think we would have been close to 4%”. He was referring to rate increases between 2015 and 2018. But the Fed dropped rates three times last year to the current rate of a mere 1.75%. Still too high, says the president, who has spoken favorably of negative interest rates, where financial institutions charge us for parking our savings.

The New York Times asked Evercore ISI, an investment advisory, about the president’s complaint. An economist there said that, absent the 2015 to 2018 period of interest increases, 2019 growth might have been 1% or so higher to 3%, but so might the trade wars have brought growth 1% lower. So 2% it is, Mr. Trump’s arguments notwithstanding.

The president is now proposing a $4.8 trillion budget for fiscal 2021 (begins October 1) that, based on the rosy assumption of 3% growth every year with nary a recession, will go on to balance the budget by 2035. That assumption leads to revenue over the next decade that is 7% higher than the CBO’s projection even though the Trump budget assumes that he and Congress will make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, reducing revenue, whereas the CBO expects all 2017 tax cuts will expire in 2025 according to “current law”, boosting revenue. Straighten out this conflict in assumptions, and the 7% grows worse.

But to keep the 2021 deficit slightly under $1 trillion the Trump budget takes the ax to funding for a number of government departments. Commerce would get 37.3% less, Energy 28.7% less, Environmental Protection 26.5%, etc. he is finally going back on his oft-repeated campaign pledge not to cut Medicare or Medicaid. This is the Republican playbook: cut taxes, causing the deficit to balloon, then declare that entitlements need to be cut. As the deficit for the calendar (as opposed to fiscal) year looked headed past the $1 trillion mark last fall, sure enough, there was Mitch McConnell calling the red ink “very disturbing” and that cuts needed to be made in “Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid”.

Stuck in a hole? Dig deeper

With a peak economy stuck at 2% annual growth and a breathtaking yearly deficit greater than $1 trillion despite only 3.6% of the populace failing to contribute payroll taxes, what does Donald Trump want to do? Hey, it’s an election year. Time to buy votes and juice growth again with still more debt. He is promising yet another tax cut once reelected.

There is recognition in the Republican camp that they made a mistake with the 2017 tax reform which Trump incorrectly proclaimed as “massive tax cuts, the biggest in the history of our country”. The tax revisions — mostly benefiting corporations and the wealthy — proved deeply unpopular in polls that showed only about a third of the public approving. In fact, multiple polls showed that a majority of Americans didn’t think they had gotten a tax cut at all, despite everyone getting some money in the revised tax rates for individuals. People became aware that cutting the top bracket from 39.6% to 37% handed the rich big dollar windfalls whereas the dollar amounts for the middle class were modest.

Republicans would need to win back the House, presumably on the coattails of a Bernie Sanders drubbing. Democrats would block any tax cut. But once again they would be increasing debt to cut taxes whereas they would never vote to spend that same money on the forever postponed repair of the nation’s infrastructure. As indicator, Trump’s budget cuts the Corp of Engineers a whopping 22%.

This time the plan is to give the top brackets no further cuts while awarding the big cuts to the middle class. That portends another big jump for the annual deficit because the Trump budget doesn’t provide for this planned tax cut in his second term. But here’s a thought that doesn’t stand a chance: don’t just leave in place the 2017 cuts for the top brackets. Roll them back and use the revenue increase to pay for the middle class cuts.