Let's Fix This Country

Katrina: When Bush looked away a second time

Vacationing on his ranch in the August before 9/11, George W. Bush famously brushed off a briefing hand-delivered by a CIA agent warning “Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the U. S.”. But it was his reaction to Katrina, when once again away from the White House vacationing at the ranch, that finally sent his approval ratings into a swoon. On the 10th anniversary of devastation to New Orleans, here is a piece written days after Katrina by a writer now at Let’s Fix This Country.
    

On the Tuesday fully 24 hours after Katrina, the White House inner circle held a conference call on whether to suggest to President Bush that he cut short his 5-week vacation by a couple of days, reported Newsweek. He can be “cold and snappish”, said the magazine, and none of his yes-men (Bush doesn’t brook disagreement) wanted to be the messenger bringing bad tidings.

He did leave the ranch but went in the other direction — a ceremony in San Diego marking the end of World War II was his priority. The American public knew from newspapers and television that New Orleans was under water, with corpses floating in the streets, whereas White House communications adviser Dan Bartlett could see that Bush did not seem fully aware of the devastation. To bring the President to the same level as the public, Bartlett worked up a DVD of news clips to show him, an insider told Newsweek.

The president famously does not read newspapers, but “it is not clear what President Bush does read or watch, aside from the occasional biography and an hour or two of ESPN here and there”.

Flying Over a Flyover State

Headed east for the first time, the closest he got to New Orleans was to peer out the window of Air Force One on the way to a Good Morning America interview with Diane Sawyer, in which he was clueless:

“Well, there’s a lot of food on its way. A lot of water on the way. And there’s a lot of boats and choppers headed that way. Boats and choppers headed that way. It just takes a while to float ’em!”

No Giuliani, who had choked on the dust of the World Trade collapse four years prior, Bush did not go to ground in New Orleans until Thursday, over three days after Katrina struck, where he would say to Michael Brown, the FEMA head who shortly be forced to resign, “Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job”.

In televised comments two days after floods that have left possibly thousands dead and a million homeless, the former cheerleader somehow found something positive in the disaster saying, “America will be a stronger place for it”.

Trent Lott is former Senate Majority Leader from Mississippi who lost that position over remarks that he regretted desegregation. With tens of thousands of poor blacks stranded in New Orleans without food or water, Bush exhibited his singular talent for striking the wrong note by choosing Lott as the beneficiary of his commiseration. Lott’s house had been destroyed. Bush had this to say: “Out of the rubbles [sic] of Trent Lott’s house there’s going to be a fantastic house. And I’m looking forward to sitting on the porch.” For yet another sleepwalking reaction to a U.S. catastrophe, Bush’s [approval ratings] have hit new lows.

States Going All Out to Nullify Obama’s Clean Power Plan

“Within minutes” said The New York Times. “Minutes after”, said The Wall Street Journal. Both were clocking how fast after the EPA announced the “rule” for President Obama’s Clean Power Plan that the attorneys general of 15 states announced their intention to file suit to block the program.

Speaking for the group, the attorney general of West Virginia, a coal mining state that will be affected more than others, said that the final rule “blatantly disregards the rule of law and … represents the most far-reaching energy regulation in this nation’s history, drawn up by radical bureaucrats and based on an obscure, rarely used provision of the Clean Air Act”. For the Journal, “This abuse of power is regulation without representation. The damage to growth, consumer incomes and U.S. competitiveness will be immense”.

The final EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) rule requires a 32% cut in power-plant carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030 relative to 2005 levels. That’s a bit steeper than the 30% contemplated by the agency a year ago , but the 25% interim reduction originally intended for 2020 has been pushed to 2022 in consideration of the industry’s concerns for the difficulty of meeting the original target.

Each state will be required to file with the EPA by 2018 its plan to meet its objective. How much each state must cut back its emissions varies according to what it emitted in the benchmark year of 2005. Each state will be free to develop its own plan employing a mix of solutions from power plant fixes to wind and solar renewables and even state or regional markets for trading pollution permits commonly called “cap-and-trade”. That last method worked spectacularly well in an alliance of northeastern states to reduce acid rain, yet its advocacy is curiously muted, because somewhere along the years, lawmakers inexplicably turned up their nose at what is, after all, a market-based approach.

The final rule gives existing nuclear plants more credit for having already contributed to the goal because they emit no CO2. Efficient use by customers was removed as a measure of emission reduction; the industry objected because utilities can’t dictate habits. The EPA made a big change for renewables. Once just one of the options, the agency has decreed that they must constitute at least 28% of the energy mix by 2030. Nationally, renewables accounted for 13% of energy production last year.

to the barricades

Five Republican governors so far have said they will defy the regulations, including two presidential hopefuls, Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. The others are Greg Abbott of Texas, Mike Pence of Indiana and Mary Fallin of Oklahoma. In a letter to Obama, Walker wrote of the “staggering costs it would inflict on Wisconsin’s homes and businesses,” that “it is difficult to envision how Wisconsin can responsibly construct a state plan.” Scott Pruitt, Oklahoma’s attorney general, is petitioning for a preliminary injunction against the Clean Power Plan based on a 1958 Supreme Court precedent in Leedom v. Kyne in which “an agency exceeds the scope of its delegated authority or violates a clear statutory mandate”.

It was Mitch McConnell who set the protest movement in motion when in March he sent letters to all 50 governors urging them to ignore the EPA
program and its requirement to submit an emission reduction plan. It was not simply an unusual action but an abuse of his position as Senate Majority Leader, which carries the implicit threat to states that if they don’t march to his commands, there could be payback in what laws do or don’t get passed.

Back then, The New York Times reported McConnell “coordinating with lawyers and lobbying firms to try to ensure that the state plans are tangled up in legal delays”. By when Obama announced the plan, “the small group that had begun its work at [the pro-business lobby] the Chamber of Commerce had expanded into a
vast network
of lawyers and lobbyists ranging from state capitols to Capitol Hill, aided by Republican governors and congressional leaders”.

McConnell’s efforts are aided by the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC. A conservative advocacy group, ALEC’s business is to spoon feed model legislation to state legislatures for them to vote into law. Their lawyers have drafted two model bills for the roughly two-thirds of state legislatures now under Republican control. In one, although state environmental agencies have for decades worked directly with the EPA on Clean Air Act matters, ALEC proposes that a state’s agency must now seek the state legislature’s approval of any emission reduction plan before submitting it to the EPA. The second bill requires as well that all legal challenges be resolved before any submission, the intent clearly being to endlessly delay any submission with fabricated challenges.

If a state doesn’t produce a plan, the EPA would impose one, but that raises the question of how can the federal government enforce compliance other than by withholding funds? Additional to the legal challenges to the EPA’s rule, non-compliance promises to be a second front that will be fought in the courts for years to come. We would return to John C. Calhoun and his advocacy of “nullification” under which states could declare null and void federal laws that they viewed as unconstitutional. The Wall Street Journal‘s editorial page is all for it.

“States can help the resistance by refusing to participate. The Clean Air Act is a creature of cooperative federalism, and Governors have no obligation to craft a compliance plan. The feds will try to enforce a fallback, but they can’t commandeer the states, and they lack the money, personnel and bandwidth to overcome a broad boycott. Let’s see how much “clean power” the EPA really has.

Of course, if a Republican wins the White House, he or Ms Fiorina could simply halt the entire reform.

For the moment the Obama administration has the upper hand. The Supreme Court ruled in 2007 that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a pollutant subject to EPA control under the Clean Air Act of 1970, and has upheld the EPA’s authority to curb CO2 three times in the previous seven years. Early this year, it ruled 6-2 that 28 Midwestern and Appalachian states are subject to EPA’s cross-state air pollution rule that limits power plant emissions blown into downwind Northeastern states. And just this June, a federal court dismissed a suit against the EPA by the nation’s largest coal company and 14 coal-producing states that sought to halt the Clean Power Plan. That will of course be appealed.

power down

Faced with shutting down older coal-fired plants not worth retrofitting, the power industry says it will also have to write off billions of debt stilled owed for the building of newer facilities. Moreover, the renewable mandate requires billions of dollars for transmission lines to bring in solar and wind power, and pipelines to feed natural-gas to replacement power plants.

But the power industry has had a long run with coal, first used for electricity 130 years ago, and has successfully fought off retrofitting pollution controls one administration after another (when George W. Bush and Dick Cheney took office, they aborted 51 suits by the Clinton administration that would have forced pollution controls much sooner than now).

the negatives

The Clean Power Plan will cost “hundreds of thousands of jobs” (says the Heritage Foundation), electricity customers will see steep rises in their monthly bills when the cost of conversion to other than coal is passed on to them, and taking coal-fired plants out of service could result in brown outs or worse. Those are the arguments that you will be hearing in the years to come from the power industry and politicians in their keep.

There are not hundreds of thousands of jobs to lose. Coal mining has been in steady decline, down to 80,000 jobs in 2013, and there are 60,000 others who work in power plants. These are significant numbers, but all coal power plants will of course not be shut down, and for the rest, how is the nation to progress from a 19th century technology (450,000 coal miners in 1900) if we are forever anchored to preserving these particular jobs. The same faction that now anguishes over coal mining jobs had no problem with exporting an estimated 6 million manufacturing jobs when they championed globalization and free trade.

Moreover, as should be obvious, the building of new plants and the conversion of old ones to natural gas, plus the infrastructure build-out for alternate energy sources such as wind and solar, are what will create the hundreds of thousands of jobs. Clean energy now delivers three times as many jobs per dollar invested as fossil-fuel investments.

Yes, electricity charges will rise — significantly in areas still heavily dependent on coal for power generation and therefore with the most to do to meet new standards.

The White House claims families will save $85 on their annual power bills by 2030, which, even if possible, evades what those families will be paying in the interim. Additional to the conversion costs passed through to customers, the new systems can only be less efficient once on line. Sun and wind are intermittent, and must be backstopped by fossil-fuel plants, “which must be cycled up and down depending on whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining”, explains The Wall Street Journal. “This cycling reduces efficiency for the backup coal and gas plants in much the same way as stop-and-go driving cuts automotive fuel efficiency”. That will add to cost.

Simultaneously, though, it is easy for a homeowner to cut energy bills with more conscientious use. And the Internet of Things is coming on strong to
We should recognize that electricity in the U.S. is cheap. Ask the rest of the world. We’ve been spoiled.

give us the smart meters that constantly adjust use by time of day and presence or absence of people in the home. The steady decline in the cost of solar will find us outfitting our houses to sell power back to the utilities. Capturing the Sun’s energy with our rooftops makes for a revolution in energy.

Reliability is a valid issue. The national electrical grid of 3,200 utilities that deliver power over 2.7 million miles of power lines is the most essential of all industries — what Bloomberg/BusinessWeek called “the largest machine in the world”. Conversion is complex and disruptive. Reworking the grid to “pick up” gas, wind and solar wherever it is found will be a nightmare of permits and eminent domain takings. Changing the power grid is a generational matter.

But the nation can’t stand still. Strengthening the fragile and vulnerable grid is essential. Much as we see nothing done while other infrastructure collapses, we will now witness a protracted fight waged by those who insist on holding the nation back from progress.

Don’t Believe China Is Looking for a Fight?

The run-in with the Chinese navy described in our companion article was hardly the first encounter the U.S . and neighboring nations have had with China. These confrontations have the potential to easily devolve into military conflict.

Last August a Chinese pilot flew his jet fighter within 20-30 feet of a U.S. Navy patrol plane over international waters 100 miles off China’s Hainan Island and flipped over to show the armament under its wings. “Very, very close. Very dangerous,” was Pentagon spokesman Admiral John Kirby’s assessment. “So totally high school”, said one American defense official. Adm. Dennis Blair, then chief of the United States Pacific Command, called the intercept “bumper cars in the air,” and charged that the Chinese military has increasingly been tailing American jets. There had been three other such provocations in the preceding six months.

“A growing record of encounters suggests that Chinese naval officers have career incentives to act provocatively, even at the risk of deadly incidents”, is the belief of military strategist Edward Luttwak writing in the Wall Street Journal.

In 2009 off China’s Hainan Island, five Chinese vessels in international waters forced an unarmed U.S. Navy surveillance ship to withdraw. The Pentagon lodged a protest with Beijing, calling the action illegal, unprofessional and dangerous.

It happened again in December 2013. The 10,000-ton missile cruiser USS Cowpens, seen here leading Japanese vessels in a training exercise, was monitoring China’s first aircraft carrier in international waters

when a Chinese naval vessel attempted a blocking maneuver, coming within an extremely hazardous 100 meters.

The worst instance was when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane in 2001. It was forced to land on Hainan, where its 24 crew members were held for 10 days. The Chinese pilot died.

East of Taiwan and west of Okinawa, seven hours by boat from Japan but still further from China, the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are but five islets and three barren rocks populated only by feral goats. But they are controlled by Japan and now China is now laying claim. China’s coast guard patrols the waters around the islands and have entered Japanese territorial waters. Japan’s F-15s scramble in pairs from Naha air force base on Okinawa more or less daily to intercept jets from the Chinese mainland that continually probe the airspace over the Senkakus. In a recent one year period, Japan had to scramble fighter jets a record 415 times. In May and June of last year Chinese fighters buzzed within 100 feet of Japanese reconnaissance planes. In January 2013, the Chinese targeted a Japanese destroyer and helicopter with fire-control radar.

In April of last year President Obama made a swing through Southeast Asia to reassure the region of our support against the growing threat of China. Less than a week later Beijing’s answer was to send an oil rig well inside Vietnam’s 200-mile economic zone, guarded by a flotilla of 80 military and civilian ships. When 30 Vietnamese boats countered to demand withdrawal, the Chinese rammed the Vietnamese vessels injuring several Vietnamese sailors. There followed violent anti-Chinese protests in Vietnamese cities. U.S. reassurance extended no further than words.

In 2011, Vietnam officials claim Chinese boats cut cables of ships exploring for oil within Vietnam’s 200-mile zone. China said that they were outside the zone and being chased by Vietnam’s ships when a fishing net accidentally snagged the cable. Mocking Vietnam for then commencing live-fire drills, China’s Global Times found it amusing that a small country once invaded by China now “tries to blackmail China. If Vietnam insists on making trouble…then we truly wish to remind those who determine policy in Vietnam to please read your history”.

Malaysia last fall offered to act as host for U.S. spy planes to patrol the southern rim of the South China Sea after China began sailing military ships into those waters with the implicit threat against Malaysia for its offshore oil and gas exploration.

As with Vietnam, Chinese patrol boats had harassed Philippine oil-exploration vessels near the Spratly Islands. In 2011, two Chinese maritime surveillance ships ordered a Philippine survey boat to leave the area around Reed Bank and, according to the Philippines, threatened to ram the boat. The Philippines later sent military planes to the area.

Then, three years ago President Benigno Aquino sent the Philippines’ only warship to drive out Chinese vessels caught fishing the Scarborough Shoal, a triangle of reefs in the South China Sea claimed by both the Philippines and China. That triggered a response from China of “10 ships, 31 fishing boats, and 50 dinghies”. The U.S. got both sides to agree to withdraw their warships, but China reneged on the deal and never left. The U.S. did nothing to enforce its mediation which led Roberto Romulo, former Philippines foreign secretary, to say, “China is eating America’s lunch in Southeast Asia.”

How the Sharing, Gig Economy Is Taking Its Toll on America’s Workers

American workers are under siege, battered by mercenary business practices, eroded legal protections, and even new laws meant to help
but hurting instead. The long decline of unions has left the worker standing alone, powerless against employers that, over an equally long span, have come to be all-powerful corporations rather than shops on Main Street.

That leaves fighting back to grass roots, such as the demonstrations demanding pay raises from fast food businesses that began in New York City. Campaigns to raise the minimum wage have met with success in states and now cities are boosting the minimum (see “Minimum Wage Mania…”), but there are a number of other forces that are squeezing workers from all sides.

half a loaf

Part time work, which offers employers flexibility, has expanded as a permanent component of the labor force with 27.7 million in that category and showing no decline even as full-time jobs rise — almost 3.5 million more part-timers than before the 2008 crash. Some 6.5 million of them report that they want full-time but are unable to increase their hours.

keeping workers at arm’s length

Businesses such as Uber that manage independents who drive their own cars in competition with cab drivers, and home and apartment owners that take in guests with bookings arranged by the likes of Airbnb, have been dubbed the “sharing” economy. The one takes business from cab drivers who have invested in costly certification, the other poses a threat to staffs at hotels and motels, and the investment in plant by their owners. These new Internet and smart phone-based business models have been met with resistance around the world, with cab drivers burning tires and clogging the streets of Paris in protest against UberPop, the company’s lower cost variant.

But for our purposes, media attention has exposed what companies have been doing out of the public eye for years, and increasingly since the plunge of 2008: hiring workers as independent contractors. That, plus the scrambling of hours of work by employers, has come to be known as the “gig” economy, a jazz world term to describe musicians’ intermittent bookings.

Contract workers receive a fee and from it must pay their own tax withholdings, payroll taxes, health insurance, and job expenses that are no longer reimbursed as with employees — gas and repairs and the vehicle itself in the case of Uber or Lyft, as examples. Companies sugar-coat the practice as giving people flexibility and independence but their motive is their own independence from vacation pay, sick day pay, unemployment insurance and costs now paid by the individual as contractor (who now pays both halves of Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes totaling 15.3%). And there’s the added benefit that businesses can more easily hire and fire, like a bellows drawing in people such as software engineers for a project, and blowing them out when a project is done, with no notice and no severance.

Hundreds of workers are suing a FedEx subsidiary that treats them as independent contractors arguing that the company’s strict rules about personal grooming, delivery times, and paperwork make them not independents but employees who are owed for overtime and the deductions taken from pay for uniforms, truck washing, and the scanners they had to buy for logging packages. The California Labor Commission has ruled that Uber’s drivers are employees, not contractors, but Uber has won similar cases in five other states.

Taking it a step further, some businesses have found that they can require workers to become single-person franchisees or limited liability companies so as to shield the company entirely from labor statutes, liability for injuries, or any interpretation of an employee relationship. A worker typically buys a franchise from a company — paying $10,000 in the case of an outfit named CleanNet — to be assigned janitorial work cleaning offices. In Arizona and Utah a house builder had set up more than 1,000 construction workers as limited liability companies and switched them from payroll to independents from one day to the next.

avoiding the cliff

The Affordable Care Act added to the fragmentation of work with its stipulation that employers with 50 or more employees working more than 30 hours a week must offer to pay for their health insurance. The Act mindlessly set up a precipice instead of a graduated scale, such as ever larger companies paying an ever larger percentage toward insurance. Instead, adding a 50th employee suddenly triggers the sizable cost for all 49 preceding employees.

What should have been easily foreseen by the drafters of the legislation is that employers are cutting back workers to 30 hours, severely crimping their pay, forcing them to seek second jobs, and filling the difference with more under 30-hour part-timers.

free loading

Corporations have taken maximum advantage of the post-2008 downturn by turning unpaid internships into a near must on young people’s résumés. Often the interns learn close to nothing, handling scutwork like photocopying, taking lunch orders and running errands. A clear violation of minimum wage laws, a federal appeals court nevertheless just ruled against interns who had worked at a movie studio for no pay. The practice is doubly reprehensible at a time when those interns are likely to be heavily in debt for their student loans and could use some assistance.

just-in-time

Working men and women, only trying to get by let alone get ahead, have a new adversary — software. Development companies are selling software packages to the fast food, retail and other fields that optimize the scheduling of part-time employees. Like the just-in-time inventory management pioneered by Japanese car companies in the 1970s, where parts are scheduled for delivery exactly when needed, software plots just who is needed and when, using past sales and traffic statistics.

For the individual employee this can create havoc. With days and hours constantly shifted by impersonal algorithms, they are made to juggle the rest of their lives with husbands, day care and schooling of children, meals, sleep, and simply trying to coincide with each other at home.

The worst extreme of treating employees as movable pieces on a game board is “on call” or “on demand” scheduling whereby the employee must be available at all times to suddenly head for work because of a no-show or unexpected demand. With a few states excepted (e.g, New York, California), employers are not even required to pay a minimum to a worker called in and then immediately sent home because demand has subsided.

City workers with long commutes (because inner city rents are too high for their pay level) are let go or cannot find work at on-demand shops because they cannot get to work fast enough. Certain store chains require employees to call in hours before coming to work, when they can be told that work has been cancelled that day because store traffic is weak. These practices create unpredictable income that makes it difficult for families to pay their bills or do any sort of financial planning.

There has been some progress in fighting the multiple-front assault on workers. The New York attorney general is investigating the scheduling practices of thirteen major retailers. Starbucks was called out in an exposé that showed how its automatic scheduling based on sales data causes chaos in the lives of its baristas, giving short notice of working hours and sending workers home with short pay when sales are weak.

Overtime Underpay

Companies such as your cable operator give their installers smart phones. The catch is that they are to give out the number to all customers and tell them “Call me anytime if you have a question or a problem”, such as when they are having dinner with their family or getting ready for bed. No one is paid extra for this time — or the intrusion on their privacy.

Amazon workers lose as much as 20 non-paid minutes a day standing on line waiting to be inspected as they leave warehouses at the end of their shift. The Supreme Court heard their case and decided that they should be paid nothing for the approximately 120 hours they spend on line each year.

Employers are free to pay nothing for overtime to a worker who earns more than $455 a week. Beyond that — which equates to $23,660 a year — an employee is considered to be a “manager”, and paid well enough not to expect extra pay for whatever extra time must be spent at work. The boss can freely assign a list of chores that run well beyond the week’s 40 hours with the employee helpless to object to not being paid for fear of being let go.

The President is about to follow through on a promise of over a year ago — as we reported then — to greatly expand the range in which an employee must be paid for overtime work. He will call for the $455 a week, beyond which an employee is no longer eligible for overtime pay, to be raised to $970. The White House estimates that 5 million workers will be freed from the exploitation of their time without compensation. The Economic Policy Institute thinks it could be closer to 15 million.

Businesses are incensed. “Free raises for everyone…another form of income redistribution”, fumes a Wall Street Journal editorial. It is viewed as yet another example of Obama using executive orders to create law, except that he is empowered to set overtime rules by the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, just as George W. Bush did when he revised the rules in 2004. Bush favored business by lowering the bar to today’s $455 a week. And he gave business owners extraordinary latitude to classify work. A supermarket employee who normally unpacked shipments but was made to spend 5% of his or her hours on tallying inventory, say, could be classified entirely as “administrative” and denied overtime altogether.

The new level of $970 a week equates to about $50,400 a year — true manager pay — which about matches the threshold that was set in 1975 when adjusted for inflation, and which incredibly has not been set anywhere near that ever since. The clear indication that the law has been used corruptly by successive lowerings of the overtime cutoff is that a mere 12% of salaried workers are eligible for overtime today, with the rest considered “managers”. That compares with 65% in 1975 and 18% just ten years ago.

As with the Obamacare cutoff, business owners interviewed in news accounts say they will simply shift people into part-time to avoid overtime and will hire other part-timers to fill in. But others say it’s cheaper to pay overtime than to hire, train and manage more people, and the change could beneficially cause owners to manage employee time more efficiently.

ways to go

The Fair Labor Standards Act dates from 1938 and is mostly unsuited to labor practices and abuse that have emerged in the 21st century. Needed is an extensive review of how law can dovetail with the new realities of part-time, sharing, on call, just-in-time work to prevent the lopsided disempowerment of Americans trying to make a living. But we are saddled with a Congress that seems incognizant of the realities outside the chambers of the Capitol building and on the take from industry to remain oblivious and cloistered. Meanwhile, states and cities are commendably going their own way as if considering Congress insular, retrograde, and irrelevant.

Minimum Wage Mania, As Reactionaries Argue Against Any Change

$15 an hour minimum wage laws have suddenly sprouted all over the country. What began as an experiment, limited to a couple thousand employees at the Seattle area airport, spread to Seattle itself last year, recently to the enormity of Los Angeles, and is now close to happening to major fast food chains across all of New York State. Chicago and Kansas City are adopting wages of $13 an hour. Other cities are considering. The sudden surge is a profound grass roots triumph.

The leap to $15 an hour — instead of the $10.10 President Obama has lobbied for — is no less than stunning. A fair argument can be made that it is too disruptive to business, except that in all cases the increases are gradual to allow time to absorb the shock, only rising to the full amount by 2020. Congress, determined to prove its irrelevance, is far behind. It refused even to consider Obama’s modest proposal in 2013, and is sure to ignore a current attempt at $12 an hour even though that wouldn’t happen until 2020.

arguing for the status quo

Conservatives take the side of business and continue to fight a rear guard action in editorials and op-ed pieces. They have called forth studies which say that prices will rise, jobs will be lost, the wrong income groups benefit the most, and income inequality will not be cured. All may be true to an extent, but they ignore the benefits to the 3.3 million workers now paid the poverty level $7.25 an hour, and to several times that number now earning more than that, but less than $15 an hour.

job loss

Economic orthodoxy says that when the chalk line on the blackboard labeled “wages” goes up, the chalk line labeled “jobs” must go down. Reality is more complex, and a number of studies say that the impact is minimal. David Brooks, a conservative columnist at The New York Times, wrote a column recently titled “The Minimum-Wage Muddle” which is designed to confuse and with which we take particular issue.

He is obliged to begin by citing just such a minimal-effect study because it is so well known in the social policy field. Two economists compared the job market in adjacent counties of two adjacent states (Pennsylvania and New Jersey) after one state had raised the minimum and the other had not and found their job-loss differences negligible. Even Brooks’ own newspaper says,

“With a recent accumulation of economic literature suggesting that moderate increases in the minimum wage have little to no cost when it comes to employment, opposition even among economists in the business world has begun to melt.

Not to go quietly, Brooks then skillfully says,

“Some economists have reported that there is no longer any evidence that raising wages will cost jobs. Unfortunately, that last claim is inaccurate. There are in fact many studies on each side of the issue.

…leaving the suggestible reader to remember “inaccurate”. Similarly, Thomas MaCurdy, of Stanford and the Hoover Institution, says “Advocates of a higher minimum wage argue that the number of workers who gain far exceeds those who lose”, but then adds, “Whatever the credibility of this calculus…”, as if it perhaps is not true, that more than those 3.3 million (and the multiple we mentioned) will lose their jobs than the number who will gain a higher wage.

And that’s what David Neumark says outright. The University of California professor, whose work on the subject is often quoted, says “It’s kind of a wash. The hit to losers wipes out the gains for winners”; a higher minimum wage costs as many low-skilled workers their jobs as help those who keep them. No data is provided because there is no data to support such a claim.

Brooks cites a study by Joseph Sabia of San Diego State University that says single mother employment dropped 6% when the minimum wage was raised 10%. Sounds alarming. But wait. Isn’t there a greater good that 94% began to earn 10% more? As for studies, Brooks says “there are dozens…showing significant job losses”.

But let’s look at that. As “one of the most studied topics in all of economics”, the minimum wage’s impact on jobs is well suited to a “meta-study”, a technique adopted from medicine where many small clinical trials are combined to produce consensus estimates. The Center for Economic and Policy Research crunched, by our count, hundreds of studies to conclude “that the minimum wage has little or no discernible effect on the employment prospects of low-wage workers”.

Brooks then says, “A study by the Congressional Budget Office found that a hike to $10.10 might lift 900,000 out of poverty but cost roughly 500,000 jobs” and goes no further, because that would have required him to report that the CBO went on to say that 16 million low wage workers would benefit from an increase, another 8 million currently paid above the minimum would probably see increases because of stepped wage structures in companies, and the aggregate of $31 billion added to paychecks — every dime of which would be spent by low-wage workers — would give a boost to the sluggish economy.

Nor does Brooks explain that CBO actually believed job losses would range from zero to 1 million, and they gave the eventuality of any job losses at all only a 2/3rds chance of occurring. The CBO had done no studies of its own and had simply settled on the midpoint of 500,000. A New York Times editorial called it “essentially the budget office’s way of saying it doesn’t really know what would happen”.

It’s a good example of selective quoting to make one’s case, with truth as casualty.

anti-poverty

Conservative pundits and op-ed writers point to a study by MaCurdy that shows “the failure of minimum-wage hikes as an antipoverty policy”. Neumark says that raising the minimum wage is no cure for poverty. “About half of poor families have no workers, in which case a higher minimum wage does no good”, he writes. (Really? It does no good for the other half?)

Along with Cornell’s Richard Burkhauser, Sabia found that the minimum wage increases are “horribly targeted”, in Brooks’ words. Only 11.3% of beneficiaries are from poor households.

Around 60% would go to households earning less than three times the federal poverty guidelines, which today would be around $70,000 for a family of four.

Neumark says, “34% of low-wage workers were in families that were far from poor, with incomes more than three times the poverty line”.

These conclusions well illustrate that economists look upon the minimum wage as misdirected social policy. The mistaken assumption by all is to assume that helping people rise above a poverty wage is thought by its advocates to be an attempt to cure poverty that has landed wide of the mark. Who is saying that? They seem to suspect a secret motive, as if overcoming the injustice of people paid so little is not motive enough?

When Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti says, “It’s deplorable and bad for our economy to have one million Angelenos stuck in poverty even when working full time”, he is speaking of the injustice of their exploitation. When New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo was asked why the state’s edict applies only to the fast food sector, his answer was because the industry was one of the “grossest examples” of not paying employees fairly. He said McDonald’s made billions of dollars in profits while its workers are forced to turn to public benefits programs to supplement their paychecks.

Again, it is the inequity of low wages that is driving the movement, not policy. It’s about frustration and anger and the belief that the system is rigged to trap them in penury. Economists should remove their eyeshades and look around.

training wheels

Those who want business to continue to enjoy artificially low labor costs promote low-wage jobs as a way for our youth to gain work experience; raising the wage in the fast food industry, which accounts for fully half of those paid the minimum, will cause them not to be hired, they argue. Pundits like Brooks make assumptions for which there is no evidence, even if you can make sense of them. He says that “because low-wage workers get less work experience under a higher minimum-wage regime, they are less likely to transition to higher-wage jobs down the road”.

The fallacy is that many assume that fast-food workers are mostly teenagers. On the contrary, 70% are over age 20, the average worker’s age is 29, more than two-thirds are the primary wage earners in their family, and 26% are raising a child, says this article.

price rises

MaCurdy says that if liberals are correct that there is minimal job loss from a wage increase, then business owners must be recovering the added cost by raising prices. “My analysis concludes that more poor families were losers than winners”. This is a baffling claim. Wages rise for only a fraction of the populace yet this drives up prices throughout the economy to such a degree that the poor are forced to spend more than they gain? “Nearly one in five low-income families benefited, but all low-income families paid for the increase through higher prices”. Not just “all low-income families” pay for the wage increase. All income groups pay the higher price, but spread so widely as to make increases barely noticeable, as the sidebar should make clear.

Why shouldn’t prices rise to the level that we ought to be paying because that’s the true cost of providing the good or service? Brooks again:

“MaCurdy found that the costs of raising the wage are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Minimum-wage workers often work at places that disproportionately serve people down the income scale. So raising the minimum wage is like a regressive consumption tax paid for by the poor to subsidize the wages of workers who are often middle class.”

He’s gone all the way to now saying the wage gainers are middle class and preying on the poor, who, by absence of any mention, apparently haven’t even received any of the benefit of the wage increase. Muddle indeed.

subsidies

The sudden moves by cities and now states to much higher minima is undoubtedly caused by awakening to just how much the poverty level minimum wage is costing them. When workers must fall back on public assistance, the taxpayer is made to subsidize parasitic business models. Andrew Cuomo wrote the following in The New York Times:

Fast-food workers and their families are twice as likely to receive public assistance compared with other working families. Among fast-food workers nationwide, 52% — a rate higher than in any other industry — have at least one family member on welfare.

New York State ranks first in public assistance spending per fast-food worker, $6,800 a year. That’s a $700 million annual cost to taxpayers.

Nationally, the taxpayer adds to his or her tab federally-paid Medicaid, food stamps, housing assistance and low-earner tax credits.

The editorial crew at The Wall Street Journal has difficulty grasping this:

We understand that people are frustrated [by stagnant middle class incomes]. Harder to understand is why so many of our media brethren have been persuaded that suddenly it’s the job of America’s burger joints to provide everyone with with good pay and benefits.

Tax dollars also subsidize major retailers. Data from Wisconsin in 2013 calculated that the average Walmart superstore cost taxpayers $904,000 a year in various subsidies, or more than $5,000 per employee. Starting in 2016, California plans to publish the names of employers with more than 100 workers on Medicaid, and how much these companies cost the state in public aid.

ethics

The pundits and economists we have cited are representative and all are effectively against any increase in the minimum wage. We can say that, because none of the sources speak of raising it, even just a little bit. Neumark ends with, “The desire to help poor and low-income families is understandable. But increasing the minimum wage is a misguided way to do it”. Therefore, do nothing. No alternative is mentioned. There are economists so imbued with the free market that they believe each of us can simply bargain with multinational giants for a wage to our liking.

These pages have carried a number of articles on the minimum wage as the debate has progressed. None have been about curing poverty or closing the income gap. Both are larger problems that the minimum wage cannot fix.

Rather, they make the point that an employer usurps a worker’s time on this planet — which may be all they have to make their way — and should have no right to keep a fellow human trapped in penury. If the right to pay poverty level wages is what it takes for a business to survive, then it deserves to fail. Why isn’t that capitalism? Why should our wallets be subsidized by low prices made possible by poverty level wages paid to other Americans? Our argument has always been protecting the low-wage worker from exploitation.

Fast Food’s Profit & Loss

<|163||How the minimum wage translates>

Anthony Puzder, CEO of CKE Restaurants, the parent company of Hardee’s and others, provides some data to work with in this Wall Street Journal op-ed. His typical franchised restaurant employs 25 people and earns about $100,000 a year in pretax profit—about 8% of the restaurant’s $1.2 million annual sales. To the 24 employees other than the manager, he attributes 75% of the profit — about $3,125 an employee. If minimum-wage crew members working 25 hours a week received a 40% raise, they would earn an additional $3,705 a year. That is $580 more than what the employee contributes to the restaurant’s profits.

First, let’s point out that the $3,125 works out to be 52 weeks; no one gets time off, apparently. At minimum wage Mr.Puzder’s part-timers make $9,425 a year. At a 40% increase (to $10.15 an hour) that would become $13,195. One can only hope that they have second or third jobs. Even at full-time they’d only earn $21,200.

These are unlivable wage rates that force people into public assistance. So what Mr. Puzder is really telling us is that we’re fooling ourselves to think cheap food is a bargain, because we’re paying the rest of its true and hidden cost to the government.