Trump’s Know-Nothing Arrogance in 2018 Brought This War on Himself

In May of 2018, Donald Trump cancelled United States participation in the 2015 agreement that limited Iran's nuclear development in return for sanctions relief. The pact — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA — had been forged between Iran, the United States, and five other countries — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — with the full European Union signing on as well. Acting entirely on his own, ignoring those allies, Trump had America go back on its word.

He has always called the agreement terrible. He underscored that view again at the beginning of March:

"I was very proud to have knocked out the Iran nuclear deal by President Barack Hussein Obama. That was a horrible, horrible, dangerous document. They were on the road to getting [a nuclear weapon] legitimately, through a deal that was signed foolishly by our country."

In his lazy ignorance not to learn what went before, he cancelled a deal that
did the opposite — prevented uranium enrichment required for a bomb. He restored sanctions instead. So he put Iran on the road; Iran resumed uranium enrichment bringing several hundred pounds up to 60%, a short hop below bomb grade. And now, to stop them, he has without prior analysis, without any strategy, blundered the United States into a war that he doesn’t know how to get out of.

For a span of variously 10 to 15 years, the 2015 accord subjected Iran to an inspection regime of the various sites where Iran was enriching uranium. It provided that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would have "regular access to all of Iran's nuclear facilities" and "suspicious sites of allegations or a covert enrichment facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country". The Ayatollah ruled out military bases, a problem because one major military site, Parchin, was suspected of conducting research on nuclear weapons.

Then as now, Iran insisted that nuclear research must be allowed to continue. After at first demanding that most of Iran's 19,000 centrifuges used for that purpose be destroyed, the alliance had to concede that 5,060 less efficient, first generation machines could remain in service during a 10-year span, and the rest need only be idled.

Iran went back on agreeing to ship its already enriched uranium out of the country, presumably to Russia, presumably to be converted to rods for use in power plants. The alliance yielded to that too, with the proviso that the stocks be diluted and held for 15 years at an enriched level of no more than 3.67%.

In return, the sanctions under which Iran had strained for six years would be lifted and about $100 billion of Iran’s own funds frozen by the West would be returned. Iran tried to get sanctions relief and return of funds returned upon signing, but Obama said they must be staged in parallel with Iran living up to its agreements.

It took 20 months of negotiations to arrive at these terms, with the consortium forced to yield to numerous concessions as seen, making clear how obdurate the Iranians are to deal with. But what the agreement said, and what Donald Trump tossed into the trash, was:

"Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons."

The entire objective of the Obama administration and its negotiating partner countries was to forestall the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon, with the possibility that after the 10 and 15 years the threat of a return to sanctions would encourage the Iranians to extend the agreement. The key goal of the accord was to increase the "breakout" time it would take for Iran, should they tear up the deal, to produce enough fissile material needed for a bomb from three months to a year or more.

Three years into the agreement, with the IAEA confirming Iran's compliance through regular inspections, Trump cancelled and re-imposed sanctions, saying he would negotiate a much better agreement, but he did nothing.

Iran is that breakout point now, thanks to Trump, with its uranium enriched to 60%, which is why Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pressed for war.

Vice President JD Vance was sent to Pakistan a week ago. That country had brokered a 14-day ceasefire. Along with him was Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Trump pal Steve Witkoff – neither of them in the government and possessing only whatever on-the-job experience two real estate guys may have acquired. Not a single State Department negotiator in sight.

Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary in the Obama administration undersecretary of State John Kerry, was one of the lead negotiators a dozen years ago. Interviewed last week, she described in contrast their team…

"that included nuclear physicists, sanctions experts, lawyers, commerce experts, people from our national labs, and energy experts. Secretary Kerry, who knew every single detail as did President Obama, spent 19 days in the Palais Coburg in Vienna. Ernie Moniz, our secretary of energy, a nuclear physicist, spent all of that time negotiating this deal.”

Vance seemed to think a deal might be struck over a weekend. After a 21-hour marathon, he reported that...

”We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms. We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer.”

Relinquish control of the strait, give up nuclear ambitions, transfer the enriched uranium out of the country, cease production of ballistic missiles are undoubtedly in the unpublished list of demands that Vance calls a “final and best offer” he thinks Iran should have accepted without objection. To be sure, Iran’s terms are equally unacceptable. There was no negotiation.

The signing of the accord in 2015 prompted a deluge of criticism. Opponents argued that we should have held out for a better deal, voiced by many in Congress, many of whom probably were not even aware that 20 months of grudging negotiations had taking place. Surely Iran would have been only too obliging to return to the table if we simply asked for a better deal.

The agreement failed to curtail Iran’s research and development of ballistic missiles. The return of Iran’s money would pay for support of its terrorist proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. All true, but critics seemed to know nothing of the talks, punctuated as they were by disputes and walkouts and repeated deadline extensions as negotiators fought over final terms and language. Exasperated negotiators hearing these complaints knew full well that if those demands had been added, there would have been no deal.

Netanyahu fought the deal and in an affront to President Obama went before a joint session of Congress, which he views as his lobby, where he was greeted by its members as delirious in their bellowed adulation as "teenagers keening for the Beatles at Shea". He warned that the agreement “paves Iran’s path to a bomb” in 10 to 15 years. Somehow that was the danger, not that Iran would set its centrifuges spinning again now were there no deal. Netanyahu set about contacting American Jews directly, telling them the deal would give Iran “hundreds of bombs tomorrow”. Did that happen? He told the Jewish community he rejects the deal “because I want to prevent war”. Did war happen? Not until today when Trump followed Netanyahu into the war that Bibi has in fact always lobbied fo.

The U.S. and its allies got all they could from a prideful and fanatical theocracy. World War II triumphs engendered hubris in 250-year-old America that other nations are acting out of turn if they don’t follow our directives. Iran – Persia – is ten times older, dating from as early as seventh century BC and boasting history’s famous conquerors, notably Cyrus the Great and Darius I. Said Amir Mohebbian, advisor to Iran's lead negotiator at the time, "In the end, we want to lead the Muslim world". That’s who we were dealing with.

We would be in year 11 of the 10 to 15 year agreement (with some elements extending as far as 25 years), with Iran surely attempting to cheat but unable to make much progress in the face of continuous IAEA inspections. Free of sanctions, Iran, along with other gulf nations, would be calmly sending over a hundred ships through the strait every day.

Instead, what do we have? In retaliation for the U.S. and Israel aborting negotiations and bludgeoning Iran, sinking its
navy, destroying an unverified percentage of its missile and drone production, killing its leadership and uncounted civilians, Iran attacked Israel and all six of the gulf countries with a barrage of missiles targeting infrastructure and civilians just as we did. They blocked the strait except for their own tankers leading the U.S. to blockade theirs, hit upon the idea of charging tolls, insist on reparations, evacuation of all U.S. forces from the region, and more. Which says that if negotiations are to continue, we have inspired a new set of demands beyond any of 2015 for the U.S. somehow to surmount. Additionally, Iran knows the U.S. cannot be trusted; they saw the American president simply cancel the 2015 agreement.

In the hopes of keeping oil prices down, the U.S. even lifted sanctions for Iran to sell its oil, giving it millions to pay for its war against us. The same for Russia, with Vladimir Putin in disbelief of his good fortune. We’re solving the Kremlin's increasing money problems with the bonanza of selling its oil and fertilizer openly — and at elevated wartime prices.

None of the other oil producing gulf states dare to run Iran's gauntlet of drones and mines. Movement to markets of 20% of the world's oil supply and 33% of its fertilizer that pass through the strait has come to a near halt with only 13 ships passing through on a recently day. A continued stalemate guarantees a recession or worse and food shortages across the world. In 2012 we wrote, "the Strait is no place for picking a fight."

This is what Trump's stupidity has wrought by his mindless action in 2018.